Bryan Johnson Longevity Protocol Discussion (2024 / 25)

[A_User]

I doubt the decision making of people in their 20’s in general and what the drivers are of their effort. If it’s pragmatic for their own longevity or coincidentally because of a research gap, status, money, etc. I meant my question was if they really have to worry for their own chance of reaching LEV if they at 20 years old have an average life expectancy of +60-70 years — much longer than the 10-20 year LEV timeline, and thus how much effort they need to spend towards it. If that question makes sense.

[CronosTempi]

@Neo

On when LEV might actually occur - from my vantage point it’s very difficult to predict, could be within 2 decades, could take 10. So my main point is when weighing the cost vs benefit is that any extra time might be the difference for the individual on whether they can make to LEV and be in an OK enough shape to benefit from it.

Just a friendly reminder, per Matt Kaeberlein - before we show max life extension in humans, we should show it in easier animal models, mammals, which would be mice. The greatest max life extension in mice we have shown, has been CR, which was demonstrated already in the 1930’s. Rapamycin, which has been around for decades, is not quite as effective as CR. And… after pulling out those two, the cupboard is empty. Thank you for coming!

So, for over 90 years now, we have not beat that intervention (CR) even in mice. For higher primates, it’s even worse. Now you are talking about humans?! Lord have mercy.

Given this pace of “progress” (more accurately “stagnation”, as progress is equal to zero for almost 100 years), we really could say there’s been no substantive progress since the time of Luigi Cornaro from the 1400-1500, or 500-600 years ago when it comes to max life extension of human lifespan.

I’m 67 currently. I am convinced, that even if I were to live another 50 years (won’t happen, lol), I will not witness human max life extension. Once I’m dead it won’t matter because I won’t be around to say “I told you so”, but whatever, I’ll still say it: I don’t believe there will be any “escape velocity” for the next 100 years. So, nobody alive today will witness such an event. It’s “prediction”, so naturally I can’t prove it, only wait to be proven right or wrong - but I won’t be around that long. If I get another 30 years (lucky!), I will only be able to be tested for that long… so, we’ll see. My bet is stagnation for the foreseeable future.

[relaxedmeatball]

@LaraPo

You are also “doing things” while you are sleeping. Your brain organizes and stores memories. Your lymphatic system clears out waste products. You are having dreams - and that alone is interesting (more entertaining than watching Netflix).

It may be physiologically true, but I presume all of us care about living longer not that so that we can sleep more, but so that we can spend more time with family, friends, doing things we enjoy etc.

@Virilius

I hope more states and countries go the Montana route and allow companies to test their research products on willing human test subjects.

There are some pretty serious ethical issues with that. The whole “right to try” thing was originally pushed by drug companies as a way to try and market their unapproved products, make profit and weaken regulations. Federal “right-to-try” over a year later: Still a failure and still about the money (and weakening the FDA) | Science-Based Medicine

[Nick1]

Latest issue of New Scientist with Cover Feature “How to Live to 100”.
Some longevity hacks. Also, happens to feature Bryan Johnson!

[Neo]

@CronosTempi

this pace of “progress”

If you think about your top 25% probability scenarios, where do think each of these might be in 30 and 50 years?

1. AI + robotics/automation ability to accelerate discovery exponentially?

2. Partial reprogramming? (This is basically what every mother does with her and the faster’s old cells when they make a 0 year old baby - it’s not something that we don’t know if it is possible, every specific of animal on the planet does it perfectly all the time)?

3. Gene/cell therapies advance materially?

4. Organ and tissue manufacturing advances to be replace old parts with one’s own, young (and improved) ones?

5. Always-on biomarkers enable rapid, personalized iteration and stacking?

6. Multi-omics + digital twins make aging measurable and munch more predictable/understandable?

7. Nanomedicine + closed-loop implants repair damage in vivo?

8. Regulatory + financing shifts treat aging as an addressable indication (in 30-50 years, not in 5 or 10)?

[CronosTempi]

1. Actually I think it will progress greatly in some areas, such as imaging and protein and generally molecule combinatorics. But that by itself will not result in LE.

2. A lot of reprogramming can happen this way, and will. But it will not result in LE, because no combination of XX and XY has resulted in LE so far (in a few 10’s of thousands of years), telling us there are some fundamental limitations inherent in the human genome.

3. Yes. But no LE, although substantial healthspan extension.

4. Yes, but so what - we already subsume that in point 3 above. Healthspan E, but not LE.

5. Sure. HE, no LE.

6. Yes.

7. Yes.

8. Yes.

[RapAdmin]

You guys are veering off into a discussion on LEV… there is a thread on X right now discussing this:

Sources:

https://x.com/davidasinclair/status/1968678652477886843

https://x.com/KarlPfleger/status/1969158754881945906

[John_Hemming]

I don’t personally think it is that good scientifically as a concept. It is a good clickbaity marketing idea, however.

[A_User]

Basically LEV is a thing, but different people could achieve it at different points and it’s not binary – on a spectrum with different levels of acceleration and deceleration. E.g income like your B-LEV, health, prior LDL-C exposure, suboptimal BP exposure under the curve, kidney function, bone density, etc.

[Neo]

An alternative is to think that there might be a series of bridges ahead of us, and the question is whether we will be healthy enough to reach the next one

and that the value of reaching that bridge has some additional probabilistic value as the beige might help one to reach the next bridge

We can see some of the contours of some key bridges being developed, but we don’t know yet when (or if) a given bridge will be finalized successfully

[Neo]

Yes, why people in their 20s also should care about cancer screening and prevention, perhaps doing an MRI to make sure no aneurism risk, wear helmet when cycling and skiing, etc

[A_User]

I had to ask AI to think about it as I’m too biased and possibly lazy thinker and it thinks that when “LEV” like singularity or AGI/ASI hits baseline health into it might still matter for treatments. You can’t really restore lost brain function, I mean like memory, as there won’t be enough precision in the restoration from prompt – unless the treatment fools someone just like a chair in a dream is what a chair looks like.

And because of LEV spectrum, maybe some things can’t really be reversed for a long time or fixed.

At least health might help with things radically changing.

LEV spectrum sounds like LED light spectrum, could be useful way to see it, like a rainbow, and it’s also artificial and a technology in some sense.

[RapAdmin]

New Scientist talks with Bryan Johnson:

Bryan Johnson on How AI Will Help Us Live Forever