One sentence book summary: yes, each bubble may burst and many will lose a lot, but the progress made during the bubble will be left behind, and that progress would not have been possible without such crazed zeal.
I think that @bryan_johnson is, wittingly or unwittingly, creating just such a speculative bubble with his Don’t Die movement, which fulfills all the properties of bubbles that Hobart and Huber identify in their book:
1/Self-fulfilling prophecy (i.e. reality distortion field): Johnson’s claims are audacious—like the possibility of halting or reversing aging— yet they promote a reality where such ideas gain credibility and resources. By presenting his vision as inevitable, he helps to reshape societal expectations, which, in the best case, pulls forward investment and innovation in longevity.
2/FOMO & YOLO: If you don’t buy in to Don’t Die you will die, so don’t miss out. And you only live once, so don’t die.
3/Excessive risk taking and over-investment: Its hard to find something that Bryan does that isn’t risky and expensive; complete plasma replacement, 100+ pills a day, spending $2mil/year, follistatin gene therapy.
4/Definite optimism: “By following the blueprint plan [definite] I, and you, can live forever [optimism]”.
5/Strong social interactions between motivated and capable individuals: Don’t Die meetups, his social media presence, etc.
The bull case: Bryan Johnson’s narrative of “if you survive until year X, technology and AI will be so advanced as to make you live forever” will set off a self-fulfilling process. This narrative will shift societal priorities and accelerate the demand for life extension technologies, which will in turn lead to the investment and research necessary to make his claim’s possible.
The bear case: unfounded claims will inevitably go unsupported, tearing to shreds what little credibility the longevity field might’ve had, and putting us into a longevity dark age. In the process people will get hurt copying his “treatments.”
So, which future timeline are we on? I honestly can’t make up my mind. I don’t think we’ll all live forever, but I do kinda think that the Don’t Die hype might do net good.
What I know for sure is that the response I get when I tell people I do aging and longevity research has substantially changed in the last couple of years. I used to get blank stares, now I get “oh, like that millionaire on twitter with a blood boy?”. To me, it feels like the narrative fly-wheel is already spinning, the bubble is already forming, and something is going to happen.
