Sadly, this is exactly the data I wanted, but that neither the lead author nor the senior author were able to provide:
And the response (from memory) was that higher concentration = more rebound. No other characteristics predicted a rebound.
So, we do not have a table of patient doses and phospho-p70S6K levels over time. Instead, we have summaries from two of the authors and the pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model from the paper. That model supports the same conclusion:
the rebound [expressed as krebound × C’siro] was driven by the concentration of sirolimus
Caveat: My research does not involve (PK-PD) modeling, so I have no special expertise here. But, this is how I interpret their model.
krebound quantifies how much the rebound effect changes for each unit change in sirolimus concentration. In this experiment, a typical krebound was 11.3 mL/ng.
Csiro represents the concentration of sirolimus in the effect compartment (i.e. where it inhibits mTORC1). It’s not used in the formula above.
C’siro represents the concentration of sirolimus in a separate compartment that models the rebound effect (i.e. where it increases mTORC1). I don’t know enough about this kind of modeling to say in detail how C’siro is calculated (these models are governed by a set of differential equations), but my understanding is that Crebound < Ceffect. Or, specific to this paper: C’siro < Csiro.
That aside, let’s return to their model from above:
Rebound = krebound × C’siro
A typical krebound was 11.3 mL/ng:
Rebound = 11.3 mL/ng × C’siro
So, as C’siro increases, the rebound increases. Or, as the paper puts it “the rebound was driven by the concentration of sirolimus”. My interpretation, based on this model and comments from the authors, is that C’siro remains low until Csiro passes a threshold of strong mTORC1 inhibition.
If the lower doses in this study (10 mg and 20 mg) didn’t cause a rebound, I can’t envision a biologically plausible reason why an even lower dose (6 mg) would. Do you have anything in mind on that front?