Seems like the range of uncertainty around the answer this question is very large.
At the same time, it seems like we cannot reach the answer by analyzing current or historical speed and progress rates of science, technology and medicine.
Rather we need to base the analysis on things such as what the world’s capabilities for scientific and technological learning and progress will look like in 15 years, 3 decades and half a century.
Personally I think the evidence for scientific, technological and knowledge capabilities growing along exponential paths and along linear paths is quite strong. So the world’s technological and scientific progress during the decade from 2050-2060 might very well be an order of magnitude larger than all the process we have seen the last 50+ years from 1970-2023.
Btw - for someone who is less “hype focused” and has delivered quite massively scientifically to the world here is a perspective Prof George Church of Harvard and the Broad Institute yesterday
… quite amazing stuff
Helps one understand why he thinks that longevity escape velocity night not be that far off.
He was recently quoted as below
Professor George Church of Harvard Medical School echoes a similar timeframe.
According to Dr. Church, “The exponential technologies that have improved the speed and cost of reading, writing and editing of DNA and gene therapies, now apply to the category of aging reversal.”
He adds: “I think age-reversal advances could mean that we reach longevity escape velocity in a decade or two, within the range of the next one or two rounds of clinical trials.”
So, what does that mean?
Can we extend the healthy human lifespan past today’s record of 122? Can humans live past 200 years? Or even indefinitely?
Summary of talk - it’s quite short, so recommend watching it.