Why ask for experiments, when we already know the results. Based on studies in twins. Exercise doesn’t pass the test. Intense exercise perhaps shortens life though - possibly, maybe. The positive effects of exercise on health and longevity is mostly down to reverse causality - those who are already genetically predisposed or healthy enough to exercise, do go ahead and exercise so we see exercising people as healthy whereas people who are unhealthy are incapable of exercising at which point we illogically blame their poor health on the lack of exercise. But twin studies reveal it all. Fully adjusted models show no benefits to exercise, though intense exercise possibly looks to be detrimental.
The associations of long-term physical activity in adulthood with later biological ageing and all-cause mortality – a prospective twin study
“Results: We identified four classes of long-term LTPA: sedentary, moderately active, active and highly active. Although biological ageing was accelerated in sedentary and highly active classes, after adjusting for other lifestyle-related factors, the associations mainly attenuated. Physically active classes had a maximum 7% lower risk of total mortality over the sedentary class, but this association was consistent only in the short term. After accounting for familial factors and excluding participants reporting prevalent cardiovascular diseases, LTPA exhibited less favourable associations with mortality. Conclusion: The association between LTPA and lower all-cause mortality may be largely due to genetic confounding and reverse causality.”
Bottom line, Charlie Munger and the 110 year old Vincent Dransfield who never exercised or ate “right” were correct. It doesn’t matter, what matters is genes - and Vincent Dransfield had better genes because he also smoked for 20 years but was still in better shape than Charlie all along.
And when we don’t have twins, we often have the next best thing: a sibling of the same sex. Jack Lalanne, was a fitness exercise and clean veggie diet pioneer, who exercised extensively and ate right all his life. He died at 96 (younger than either Charlie or Vincent). He also had an older brother, Norman Lalanne, who didn’t bother with exercise or diet - he died at 97… so lived a year longer than Jack.
Again, if you like exercising, do it. But don’t count on exercise overriding your genetically driven expiration date. Not having a non-exercising twin (or sibling) however has the advantage of allowing you to maintain the illusion that all that exercising is doing your longevity any good.
What trips people up is the distinction between early mortality and lifespan extension. You might affect the former by lifestyle interventions, but not the latter. For the latter, you need a more powerful intervention - drugs, or (one day) genetic engineering. Exercise is not it.
